Hegseth in Israel, Asim Munir in Tehran: Is War Looming or a Deal Within Reach?

According to Israeli media reports and Axios, Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday during an unannounced visit to Ovda Air Base in southern Israel. The meeting lasted approximately two hours and took place amid growing speculation about the possible resumption of large-scale military operations against Iran. Reports have also suggested that officials from the United Arab Emirates attended the meeting, although no official, independently verified details of the agenda are available.

Meanwhile, Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief and one of the key mediators between Tehran and Washington, made a sudden visit to Tehran. The visit is significant because Pakistan's mediation efforts are running alongside Qatar's active diplomatic channel, while there are still no clear signs that negotiations have overcome their fundamental differences. At a press briefing, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said he did not know what the visit was about.

Nevertheless, the timing of the two visits suggests that diplomatic efforts and military calculations are proceeding in parallel.

The Strait of Hormuz: Where War, Oil and Diplomacy Converge

At the center of this equation are the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. Brent crude prices reaching the $109–$110-per-barrel range reflect the market's sensitivity to the continuing crisis. Iran has stressed that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to their pre-war state.

Iran's proposed seven-day plan is part of this broader strategy. According to the proposal's outlined terms, the United States must formally accept the plan and implement the agreed commitments during the first five days. Iran would then reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day, with nuclear negotiations scheduled to begin on the seventh.

Lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, easing restrictions on oil exports and releasing Iran's frozen assets are among the concessions Tehran is seeking. Washington, however, wants Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. The dispute is therefore not only about the substance of a potential agreement; the sequence in which commitments would be implemented has also become a major obstacle.

Uncertainty Surrounds Asim Munir's Proposal

Against this backdrop, Munir's visit could be significant in conveying messages or bringing the two sides' positions closer together. Pakistan has previously emphasized its preference for diplomacy over confrontation.

According to a report by Qatar-based newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, the proposal that Pakistan's army chief presented to Iranian officials on Wednesday includes the release of profits generated by Iran's $6 billion held in Qatar in exchange for a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visit to Iran's nuclear sites.

However, until the details of the reported proposal and the parties' responses become clear, the visit cannot be considered definitive evidence of progress in negotiations.

The Factor That Could Shape Washington's Decisions

The political dimensions of the crisis are as important as the military developments. Reuters, citing three senior Iranian officials and one informed source, has reported that Tehran is deliberately prolonging negotiations with Washington in an effort to weaken US President Donald Trump's political position ahead of the November 3 midterm congressional elections.

According to the report, Iranian officials believe Washington could once again turn to military action to break the deadlock over the war. They also believe Tehran should avoid making concessions that Trump could present as a political victory.

What is clear is that the Iran conflict has become intertwined with the US congressional elections, which are highly consequential for Trump. This connection, however, cuts both ways: it could strengthen incentives to reach an agreement while also increasing the risk of costly decisions.

Has Pakistan Joined the Blockade of Iran?

Munir's visit is not limited to the war and mediation efforts. Trade through Pakistan's Taftan–Mirjaveh and Gabd–Rimdan border crossings has been suspended.

Pakistan's land routes could help supply some essential goods and ease pressure on regional trade. Although the border closures have reportedly been attributed to technical reasons, the underlying cause appears to be US sanctions pressure on Pakistan to tighten the restrictions surrounding Iran.

Pakistan is attempting to maintain constructive relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran while also preserving its position as a US ally.

Agreement or a New Round of Confrontation?

Unless Munir has brought a different proposal capable of breaking the negotiating deadlock in Tehran, his visit is unlikely to prevent tensions from escalating.

Military coordination and preparations between the United States and Israel have intensified, while the option of launching another attack on Iran remains on the table. With the US midterm elections approaching, Tehran appears unwilling to give Trump the political credibility of a short-term agreement that fails to secure the concessions Iran is seeking.

If Washington also continues to insist on maximalist demands while maintaining its blockade of Iran, the risk of another confrontation could rise substantially.