Iran Fortifies Nuclear Sites and Rebuilds Missile Arsenal as It Prepares for Possible Renewed War

Political Desk: Iran is reinforcing its defenses, mobilizing forces loyal to the government, and threatening a broader and more intense response against the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf. These measures come as Tehran prepares for possible U.S. attacks following the midterm elections and seeks to dissuade Washington from launching them.

The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iranian officials have warned publicly and in private conversations with regional officials that, if the United States launches fresh attacks, the Islamic Republic will further expand the conflict across the Middle East.

According to the report, satellite imagery shows that Iran is reinforcing sensitive positions, including nuclear facilities and border areas, to make them more resistant to attacks. The government is also preparing Iranians for a possible resumption of hostilities. It has deployed paramilitary forces to kindergartens to tell children stories about the war, promoted training courses on firing shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, and organized large rallies.

Iran has limited capacity to defend itself against advanced U.S. fighter jets, high-altitude bombers, or cruise missiles, giving the country an additional incentive to deter an American attack through threats. Tehran's aggressive rhetoric also diverts attention from the worsening economic conditions facing Iranians, which have deteriorated amid intensified U.S. sanctions and pressure on airlines to suspend flights to Iran, further tightening the country's isolation.

“Being in a state of war has worked in their favor under the current circumstances, because it has created a stalemate on multiple diplomatic, economic, and political fronts,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at the London-based Chatham House think tank. “A new war could provide the Islamic Republic with a way out of the deadlock in which it has trapped itself.”

Iran Threatens to Expand the War Across the Persian Gulf

According to people familiar with the warnings, some Iranian officials have implicitly suggested that Iranian forces could cross into neighboring countries in an attempt to deter a possible U.S. attack. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior Iranian national security official, said on Sunday that Tehran might target the United Arab Emirates, which has largely been spared attacks since late spring. He also referred to data centers and internet cables across the region.

Separately, Tehran has warned Arab officials that, if hostilities resume, it could strike targets across the region, including Saudi oil facilities, according to some of the people familiar with the warnings. Such an attack would intensify the threat Saudi Arabia already faces from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, who attacked the Saudi capital's international airport last weekend.

The U.S. military is also preparing for the possible resumption of hostilities. The Wall Street Journal reported that a third aircraft carrier strike group and another Marine expeditionary unit are heading toward the Middle East. The Pentagon is also considering deploying additional air-defense equipment and munitions to bases in the region.

U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out an attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections last week. However, he has publicly raised the possibility of striking Iran's Kuh-e Kolang nuclear site. U.S. officials have also said the military is preparing a range of options for fresh attacks.

The efforts by both sides to strengthen their military capabilities suggest that, more than seven months into the war, neither side feels compelled to abandon a conflict that has largely reached a stalemate.

Instead, both sides are trying to break the deadlock on their own terms. The United States has intensified its economic pressure campaign and is increasingly succeeding in moving oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising Maritime Attacks and Threats to Economic Infrastructure

Iran has stepped up attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf region. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), an organization affiliated with the Royal Navy, at least three commercial vessels came under attack inside or around the Strait of Hormuz last weekend. On Sunday, a drone attack near Oman sparked a fire aboard the Emirati tanker Petro Dolphin, leaving two Indian crew members missing.

A missile attack by Houthi militants on Riyadh airport on Saturday left at least 13 people dead and hundreds injured. It was the deadliest single attack against the United States or its Gulf allies during the conflict associated with the war in Iran.

The attacks highlighted the vulnerability of major economic targets across the region, which could come under threat if Trump decides to resume the war.

The Iranian government has also told mediators that it intends to target U.S. forces more aggressively, including by attempting to sink American warships in the Middle East and kill their crews, according to some of the people familiar with the warnings.

During the attacks in September, Iranian missiles came close to U.S. warships. Last week, the Pentagon relocated 12 B-1 bombers from a military base in Britain, an action linked to concerns about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' plans for a drone attack.

According to the Wall Street Journal, direct fighting between the United States and Iran has largely been suspended since late July, when Trump halted plans for a major escalation. One reason for the decision was concern over stocks of interceptor missiles needed to defend targets across the region.

Iran Rebuilds Its Missile Capabilities and Strengthens Nuclear-Site Defenses

Iran has used the pause in hostilities to rebuild missile- and drone-production facilities and replenish its weapons stockpiles.

Iran has also strengthened security around its nuclear facilities and other security-related shelters. According to satellite imagery from Vantor, analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based nonprofit organization, Iran carried out passive-defense measures last month, including constructing temporary earthen berms around the Kuh-e Kolang nuclear site and the Natanz facility. The measures are intended to make any attempt by ground forces to infiltrate and attack these sites more difficult.

“The Islamic Republic is actively preparing for the next war, both in its rhetoric and in its actions,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank. “In that sense, the government's actions serve both as a deterrent and as part of its war planning.”