Yemen’s Houthis Open a New Front in the Iran-U.S. War

Political Group: Developments in Yemen and the advances made by Ansarullah have affected the entire energy market and the dynamics of the Iran-U.S. war. With the Houthis gaining greater control over Yemen’s western coastline and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, alternative routes for energy exports that bypass the Strait of Hormuz have also come under pressure. On one side, Iran holds leverage over the Strait of Hormuz; on the other, Ansarullah, which is aligned with Tehran, has gained control over Bab el-Mandeb.

The United States rejected Saudi Arabia’s request for direct intervention, and the Iran-U.S. war appears to have entered a new phase following the developments in Yemen — a phase that some have described as the “two chokepoints” scenario.

From Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb

One of the routes Saudi Arabia uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is the East-West Pipeline. The roughly 1,200-kilometer pipeline transports oil from the kingdom’s eastern regions to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. In recent months, the pipeline has had a capacity of around 4 to 5 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 4% to 5% of global oil supply.

A significant portion of this oil must then pass through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait before reaching the Indian Ocean. But the strategic chokepoint is now effectively under Houthi control.

According to reports, Saudi oil exports through Bab el-Mandeb have fallen by around 95% following an escalation in Houthi attacks. Maritime traffic through the strait has also declined by roughly 60% compared with the period before the Houthi attacks began. The decline was already significant before the latest developments, but the Houthis’ advance along the Red Sea coast and their capture of Mayyun Island have given the situation a new strategic dimension. Oil prices consequently rose as high as $110 a barrel.

Two chokepoints in the global energy market

According to EghtesadOnline, the term “two chokepoints” has been used to describe the situation following the Houthis’ growing control over Bab el-Mandeb.

At the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has been able to exert significant pressure on shipping and energy exports. To the west of Saudi Arabia lies Bab el-Mandeb, a roughly 28-kilometer-wide strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is one of the world’s key trade routes between Asia and Europe and is now under the control of Ansarullah, the Iran-aligned Houthi movement.

If Hormuz is disrupted, Saudi Arabia can turn to the Red Sea. But if Bab el-Mandeb also becomes unsafe, that alternative route loses much of its effectiveness.

Although Iran does not exercise complete control over the Houthis, the interests of the Islamic Republic and Ansarullah have become closely intertwined, giving Tehran significant influence over the group.

Saudi Arabia caught between war and negotiations

Saudi Arabia’s response highlights the difficult choice facing Riyadh. On one hand, backing down in the face of the Houthis could mean losing a strategically important position along the Red Sea coast and allowing Iran’s influence to expand. On the other hand, launching a large-scale ground and air war in Yemen would revive memories of Saudi Arabia’s lengthy and costly intervention, which ultimately failed to achieve its objectives.

Existing reports also point to weak coordination among Saudi- and UAE-backed forces in Yemen. Riyadh has asked Washington for assistance, but the United States has so far avoided direct and extensive involvement in the Yemen front, focusing more on intelligence support. This suggests that Washington does not want to open another costly front in Yemen while simultaneously fighting Iran.

What does Iran gain?

For Iran, the developments in Yemen have military, economic and diplomatic implications. As insecurity around Bab el-Mandeb increases, oil prices rise and the economic pressure caused by supply disruptions intensifies. Brent crude recently moved above $108 a barrel at one point. Under such circumstances, Iran could argue in messages and negotiations with the United States that the continuation of the war is no longer solely a nuclear or regional-security issue; it directly affects oil prices, inflation, shipping and the economies of the United States and its allies.

This dynamic had already emerged, but Washington had sought to neutralize the impact by finding ways to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Another important point is that Iran has supported the resumption of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders have also said that any agreement between Iran and the United States should address the Yemen issue. This position suggests that Ansarullah is becoming an increasingly important part of the broader negotiations surrounding the war.

What happens next?

The consequences of the Yemen war extend beyond the oil market. Recent developments have put the fragile truce that has largely halted much of Yemen’s civil war since 2022 at risk of collapse. A return to full-scale fighting could further deepen the humanitarian crisis in a country that has already experienced one of the world’s largest humanitarian emergencies.

Reports indicate that tens of thousands of people have been displaced in a short period of time.

If the Houthis succeed in consolidating their position along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, Iran will gain another indirect but significant source of leverage in the southern Arabian Peninsula.If Saudi Arabia and the United States respond by launching a large-scale campaign to retake these areas, the risk of opening another major front in the region will increase.

But if negotiations are revived, Yemen could, for the first time, become an official component of a broader deal between Tehran and Washington.Yemen’s Houthis Open a New Front in the Iran-U.S. War