Is Oil Heading for 140 Dollars? Goldman Sachs Raises Its Oil Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for the global oil market, raising its price forecasts amid concerns that supply risks in the Middle East could persist. The bank's analysts believe that although oil production and exports from the region have partially recovered, the threat of renewed attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure, combined with the lack of a clear path toward a lasting agreement, could keep oil markets under pressure.

The assessment was outlined in a research note dated November 1, which was reported by media outlets on Monday. The central message is that improving supply conditions do not necessarily mean an end to market concerns. The risk of further disruptions remains high and could keep oil prices elevated.

Goldman Sachs Raises Its Oil Price Forecasts

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude in December 2026 from 90 dollars to 105 dollars per barrel. Its forecast for US crude oil over the same period has also increased from 81 dollars to 94 dollars per barrel.

The bank has also revised its average oil price forecasts for 2027. Brent crude is now expected to average 88 dollars per barrel, up from the previous estimate of 80 dollars. Meanwhile, the forecast for US crude has risen from 73 dollars to 78 dollars per barrel.

Despite these upward revisions, Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario still points to a gradual decline in oil prices. However, the bank now expects prices to remain higher than previously anticipated because of persistent supply risks.

Why Are Supply Concerns Keeping Oil Prices High?

According to Goldman Sachs, one of the main factors behind the rise in oil prices in October was an increase in the market risk premium to around 27 dollars per barrel.

The risk premium represents the additional amount traders are willing to pay because of concerns about potential supply disruptions. In other words, even if an actual shortage has not yet occurred, the possibility of future disruptions can push prices higher.

Bloomberg also reported that Goldman Sachs has factored in a potential disruption of one million barrels per day in global oil supply in its baseline scenario for 2027. The assumption reflects the difficulty of predicting when and where disruptions linked to regional conflicts might occur.

What Would It Take for Oil to Reach 140 Dollars?

A rise in Brent crude to 140 dollars per barrel is part of Goldman Sachs' bullish scenario and depends on prolonged, significant disruptions to oil production in the Persian Gulf.

Under this scenario, average oil production in the Gulf in 2027 would need to remain 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. If that happens, Brent crude could reach 140 dollars per barrel, with its average price for 2027 climbing to around 130 dollars.

An escalation in attacks on commercial vessels, damage to oil facilities and continued uncertainty among traders are among the factors that could contribute to this scenario.

Could Oil Prices Fall Back to 60 Dollars?

Alongside its bullish outlook, Goldman Sachs has also outlined a scenario in which oil prices decline substantially.

Under the bank's bearish scenario, if oil production in the Gulf in 2027 rises to 2.5 million barrels per day above its 2025 average and the anticipated supply disruptions fail to materialize, Brent crude could fall to between 60 and 69 dollars per barrel.

A faster recovery in regional production and a diplomatic agreement that markets consider lasting and credible could help bring about this outcome.

Overall, Goldman Sachs' upward revisions highlight the persistence of risks in the global oil market. However, 140-dollar oil remains a conditional possibility rather than the bank's central forecast. The future direction of prices will largely depend on production levels in the Persian Gulf, regional security developments and the prospects for lasting diplomatic agreements.