Gold Rises, Oil Falls and Dollar Index Weakens | Is Nvidia CEO Accused of Spying for China?

Global markets opened the week with gains in precious metals, falling oil prices and a weaker US dollar, while an investigation into Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang raised questions about the chipmaker's exposure to China.

Gold, silver and copper advanced, US stock futures moved higher, and the US Dollar Index declined.

Investors are awaiting further clarity on negotiations between Iran and the United States, as well as the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, November 10, at 5:00 p.m. Tehran time.

Gold Rises at the Start of the Trading Week

Spot gold rose $27.65, or 0.68%, from Friday's closing level in early Monday trading.

The precious metal gained approximately 5% last week. However, stronger-than-expected US employment data increased expectations of another interest rate hike, putting downward pressure on gold prices on Friday.

Reuters and The Wall Street Journal identified falling oil prices as one of the factors supporting gold's gains on Monday. Oil prices declined after President Donald Trump played down the likelihood of another attack on Iran.

In its latest forecast revision, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end 2026 gold price target to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650 in a November 5 report. The bank also cut its year-end 2027 forecast to $4,800 per ounce from $5,400, citing the increased possibility of further US interest rate hikes.

Oil Prices Fall in Early Monday Trading

Brent crude futures fell $1.63, or 1.66%, from Friday's settlement to $96.35 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $0.95, or 1.05%, to $89.40 per barrel.

Brent's front-month contract lost approximately 16% last week, marking its steepest weekly decline since April 2020. The figure also reflected the rollover from the December contract to January.

January Brent futures and front-month WTI both fell approximately 13% over the week.

Democratic gains in the US midterm elections strengthened hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran, helping push Brent back below $100 per barrel.

Reuters and The Wall Street Journal cited Trump's latest remarks as another factor weighing on oil prices. Trump said the likelihood of renewed US strikes against Iran was very low as long as negotiations continued to make progress.

Meanwhile, reports of recent incidents involving oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz continued to fuel concerns about potential supply disruptions.

JPMorgan estimated that the global oil surplus increased from 1.1 million barrels per day in September to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, raised its Brent price forecast for December to $105 per barrel from $90 in a November 2 estimate. It also increased its forecast for the 2027 average Brent price to $88 per barrel from $80.

Copper Recovers Some Weekly Losses as Silver Extends Its Gains

Copper rose 1.15% in early Monday trading from Friday's close to $6.33 per pound. December copper futures had fallen approximately 3.8% over the previous week.

Reuters attributed last week's decline to investor concerns about a slowdown in US data center construction. Those concerns intensified following Democratic gains in the midterm elections and growing debate over tighter regulation of the artificial intelligence industry.

TD Securities has also warned of further downside risks for copper. According to the institution, a reduced likelihood of tariffs on copper imports could weaken US buyers' incentive to purchase the metal early and build up inventories.

Silver gained 1.64% to $52.75 per ounce in early trading, after briefly climbing as high as $53.45 per ounce. The price remained slightly below last Thursday's peak. Spot silver had gained approximately 5.8% over the previous week.

Reuters reported that silver's latest advance came alongside gains in gold and other precious metals.

Lower oil prices have eased concerns about energy-driven inflationary pressures. Investors are now focused on US inflation data to assess how the outlook for a December interest rate hike may change.

US Dollar Index Declines at the Start of the Week

The US Dollar Index fell 0.45% to 101.81 in early Monday trading. The index had gained approximately 0.4% last week, with much of the increase occurring on Friday after stronger-than-expected US employment figures boosted expectations of a December rate hike.

Reuters attributed Monday's decline to easing concerns over AI-related stocks and a reduced likelihood of renewed US military action against Iran.

Markets are now awaiting US October inflation data, scheduled for release on Tuesday at 5:00 p.m. Tehran time.

The euro gained approximately 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1194. The single currency had lost around 0.2% last week and recovered some of Friday's 0.7% decline.

An ING analyst told The Wall Street Journal that the euro's recent losses had been too large to be explained solely by differences in short-term interest rates between the United States and the eurozone.

The Japanese yen also strengthened approximately 0.35% against the dollar, bringing the exchange rate to 157.93 yen per dollar.

The dollar had gained around 0.6% against the yen last week. Japan's Ministry of Finance released details of its intervention during the summer, revealing that the country spent $50.36 billion buying yen on July 30. This marked Japan's largest-ever single-day intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Wall Street Futures Rise as Nvidia Slides Following Investigation Into Huang

Ahead of the opening of US equity markets, Dow Jones futures rose 0.73%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.40%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.21%.

All three major indexes ended the previous week lower. The Nasdaq 100 fell approximately 4.9%, the S&P 500 declined 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost around 0.9%.

Nvidia shares, however, fell approximately 4.5% in premarket trading on Monday following reports of an investigation involving the company's founder and CEO, Jensen Huang.

The stock had closed Friday up 2.8% at $186.64 per share, although it remained down 8.8% for the week. The Wall Street Journal identified Nvidia's decline as one of the factors behind the Nasdaq futures' relative underperformance compared with the other two major indexes on Monday morning.

The controversy began with reports concerning Jensen Huang's relationship with Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based company Megaspeed, which has purchased Nvidia chips.

According to Reuters, US officials had previously examined whether Megaspeed helped China obtain advanced chips subject to US export restrictions. The Wall Street Journal also reported that US officials believed Alice Huang had been providing information to the Chinese government.

Jensen Huang told employees in a message that he had been unfaithful to his wife and was cooperating with the investigation.

Nvidia's board announced that an independent committee would examine whether Huang had been targeted in a foreign intelligence operation. The board said there was currently no reason to believe that Nvidia's trade secrets or US national security had been compromised.

Bloomberg reported that Huang would remain CEO while the investigation continued.

For investors, the significance of the case lies in its potential implications for Huang's future at the helm of Nvidia and the possibility of tighter scrutiny of the company's chip sales to China.

Short-Term Treasury Yields Rise as Markets Price in a December Rate Hike

The yield on the two-year US Treasury note rose 0.8 basis points in early Monday trading to 4.520%.

Meanwhile, yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds edged down 0.4 and 0.8 basis points, respectively, to 4.855% and 5.255%.

As a result, the spread between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed from 34.7 to 33.5 basis points.

Stronger-than-expected US employment data released on Friday pushed Treasury yields higher, with the largest increases concentrated in shorter maturities, which are more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy decisions.

The impact of the employment report remained visible in short-term yields during Monday's trading. At the longer end of the yield curve, falling oil prices and easing concerns about energy-driven inflation limited further increases in yields.

According to market data, investors were pricing in a 78.7% probability that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 9 meeting, lifting the target range from 3.75%–4.00% to 4.00%–4.25%.

The probability of rates remaining unchanged stood at 21.3%.

Friday's employment report strengthened expectations of a rate hike. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, significantly above economists' expectations of 65,000.